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In the last five election cycles, Public Opinion Strategies has helped elect six women to the House of Representatives:
- Michele Bachman, MN-6 (2006)
- Candice Miller, MI-10 (2002)
- Melissa Hart, PA-4 (2000)
- JoAnn Davis, VA-1 (2000)
- Shelley Moore Capito, WV-2 (2000)
- Heather Wilson, NM-1 (1998)
The campaigns of these women illustrate how POS utilizes research to provide actionable data to help our clients win the tough races. Like many POS clients, these female candidates faced significant obstacles to victory: heavily Democrat districts, opponents who spent millions of their personal fortune in the campaign, and an issue environment which often favored their Democrat opponent. POS does not take credit for their victories, but we played a critical strategic role in these victories.
Michele Bachmann, MN-6
The 2006 open-seat race in Minnesota’s 6th Congressional District illustrated the importance of developing a strong campaign message and having the discipline to stick with it. Click here to read more about how our research facilitated important strategic decisions by Michele Bachmann’s campaign team.
Shelley Moore Capito, WV-2
Down by 27 points five months before Election Day, Shelley Moore Capito overcame a seemingly insurmountable deficit to surpass Democrat Jim Humphries in 2000. What's more this was the second most expensive congressional race in the country—Humphries' campaign spent over $7 million against her—in a district where Democrats enjoy a 20-point advantage in voter registration.
Public Opinion Strategies utilizes survey research to provide a roadmap to victory. In this case, our research tested Capito “bio” information to help position her background (being the daughter of a former governor, for example) and which legislative accomplishments to highlight in her record. We also used research to find the chinks in Humphries' armor: a whopping 15 statements about Humphries' record and positions on the issues moved at least half of the voters to be much less likely to vote for him.
Our research helped fine-tune where resources needed to be spent (the panhandle) and the tone of the advertising and campaign in general. For example, tracking surveys queried about the campaign "information flow," or whether what voters were hearing about the campaign was giving them a more favorable or less favorable image of the candidates. While the data showed voters evenly divided on the information flow regarding Capito's campaign, it was "upside down" for Humphries (27% more favorable; 45% less favorable).
The final survey showed Shelley Moore Capito two points up on the ballot - exactly the margin by which she won the election.
JoAnn Davis, VA-1
Coming out of a competitive and crowded Republican primary, JoAnn Davis began her campaign with few resources left in a district where it is difficult to increase name ID or communicate messages because it spans three media markets, including high-priced Washington. Our first survey showed Davis was running behind the Republican ticket in the most GOP areas of the district - also the most expensive - therefore necessitating the use of mail and phones to carry the message. The polling also found that marrying her biography, issue positions and her record was necessary to putting her over the top. Follow-up research showed that Davis extended her lead in the targeted area by over 15 points. Davis won 58% of the vote on Election Day, surpassing Senator George Allen's vote and equaling President Bush's vote in the district.
Heather Wilson, NM-1
Perhaps no other candidate has stymied Democrats' hopes of unseating Republican incumbents than Heather Wilson. USA Today called her first victory in the June 1998 special election “a serious setback in (the Democrats') bid to regain control of the House.” Her victory helped dampen media spin that Democrats were likely to take over the House of Representatives.
But, victory was neither easy nor assured after her special election win, as she had to face the same opponent again only five months later in the general election. Like Shelley Moore Capito in 2000, Wilson faced two major obstacles: a heavily Democrat district with an eleven point Democrat registration advantage and a personally wealthy opponent in Phil Maloof who spent a combined $8 million in the special and general election races. Moreover, Wilson had the additional burden of being the number one targeted incumbent by the Democratic Party.
POS polling helped to focus Wilson's biography, hone and target messages, and define key target groups among Democrats in a heavily Democrat district. Verbatim responses to open-ended questions in the surveys were used in "man-on-the-street" ads to relay back voters' perceived strengths of Wilson and concerns about Maloof. Most important was the strategic, message and coalition focus that our polling provided.
Wilson won 44.6% of the vote in the special election. Our turnout model hit her five point victory total on the mark. In the general election, she increased this margin of victory to seven points. Although Wilson remains a top target of the Democrats, she has won re-election three times. In 2006, a year that saw many House GOP incumbents defeated, Wilson held on to defeat Attorney General Patricia Madrid, garnering 50.2% of the vote.
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