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Michele Bachmann, MN-6
The 2006 open-seat race in Minnesota's 6th Congressional District illustrated the importance of developing a strong campaign message and having the discipline to stick with it. The contest pitted Republican State Sen. Michele Bachmann against well-known child advocate Patty Wetterling, whose son had been abducted by a masked gunman 17 years prior and had never been found.
When the Mark Foley scandal broke, Democrats tried to make this contest a referendum on the former Florida congressman. The Bachmann campaign knew that if the election became about Mark Foley, Bachmann would lose; if the election outcome hinged on taxes, we would win. On Election Day, Michele Bachmann emerged from the most expensive congressional race in Minnesota history with an eight-point victory.
Minnesota's 6th Congressional District is a suburban and exurban district north of St. Paul and Minneapolis and includes fast-growing communities of young swing voters. While the district has delivered big margins for President George W. Bush and Republicans Senator Norm Coleman and Governor Tim Pawlenty, it was also part of Jesse Ventura country. In 2004, Wetterling lost to incumbent Republican Congressman Mark Kennedy by single digits, and Kennedy failed to carry the district in his 2006 Senate race against Amy Klobuchar.
Long before the Foley scandal, Wetterling was well-positioned for the 2006 race: Wetterling was well-known in the district; it was an open-seat race this time around; the political environment was very anti-Republican; and the Republican running for the Senate was getting thrashed.
Our July polling reflected the challenge Bachmann faced, as she trailed Wetterling by four points. But the data were also encouraging in that Bachmann's background and issue priorities resonated well with voters, while the more voters learned about Wetterling's record and issue positions, the less they liked her. Also, voters all knew Wetterling (and liked her), but the fact that she had a huge ID advantage but a small lead indicated that district voters were skeptical.
Our research facilitated important strategic decisions the campaign team needed to make about messaging. We tested two biographies on Bachmann: one emphasizing her fiscally conservative views; the other, her socially conservative views. While both biographies resonated well with the Republican base, the fiscal message had considerably more appeal with swing voters. The data suggested that a socially conservative message would help drive turnout among Bachmann's base, but the campaign needed to focus on taxes and fiscal issues to persuade swing voters.
We also tested a series of messages that outlined the issue contrasts between Bachmann and Wetterling. We found that the strongest points of contrast - that is, the issues in which voters were most likely to agree with Bachmann over Wetterling - were traditional marriage, tax cuts, guns, health care, and experience.
Additionally, we tested Bachmann's accomplishments as a state senator and a series of messages about Wetterling. We found that Bachmann's legislation to protect property owners from eminent domain and her authorship of the Taxpayers Bill of Rights were effective positive statements to incorporate into our messaging. The most compelling messages against Wetterling involved her ties to liberal groups, her statements on withdrawing troops from Iraq, and her views on tax increases. The messages on taxes were particularly important because they painted a clear contrast between the two candidates and appealed to the key target groups we needed to reach.
Curiously, Wetterling tried to make taxes a component of her own message, and she ran two ads attacking Bachmann's record on tax issues. We believe the Wetterling team made a strategic mistake in running the tax ads because the ads helped drive Bachmann's message. So long as the candidates were talking about taxes, Bachmann had the advantage.
In early October, the dynamic of Minnesota's 6th District race turned on its head with the Foley scandal. As a child advocate, Wetterling was a particularly credible voice on the subject, and when media outlets zeroed in on the story, she became one of the Democrats' go-to spokespersons. Our survey immediately following Foley's resignation showed Wetterling's lead widening to eight points.
National Democrats clearly hoped to turn the 6th District race into a referendum on Mark Foley.
On October 3 - just four days after Foley resigned - Wetterling launched a new TV ad, which according to Minnesota Public Radio was the first ad in the nation to refer directly to the scandal. In "Crimes," Wetterling accused House Republicans of covering up the Foley scandal, saying, "For over a year, they [Congressional leaders] knowingly ignored the welfare of children to protect their own power."
But the Foley ad overreached and backfired on Wetterling, while the Bachmann team was disciplined and stayed on message. In the campaign's closing weeks, the verbatim comments revealed that Bachmann had won the message war: our voters saw Wetterling as an inexperienced, single-issue candidate who was wrong on taxes. For example, comments from Bachmann voters on our October 24-25 survey included the following:
"I can tell you why I will not vote for Wetterling, all Wetterling talks about is child safety. I think Bachmann would keep taxes down. I like that she says she will keep taxes down."
"Michele has a good hold on taxes and other things. Patty doesn't have good answers. She has trouble coming up with answers. I get the idea that she doesn't understand the issues. Or doesn't have answers for the issues."
"I think she will keep taxes lower than Patty Wetterling will."
Michele Bachmann was one of only two Republican freshmen women elected in 2006, overcoming a four-point deficit in July to win by eight points in November. Facing the most anti-Republican political climate since 1974 and the Foley scandal, Bachmann held Wetterling to a lower percentage of the vote in 2006 than she had received against the incumbent Kennedy in 2004.
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