A Mid-Term Election Like No Other
Well, what happened?
Public Opinion Strategies conducted 1000 interviews with voters last night
for our fifth straight cycle of post-election research.
Clearly, President George W. Bush transformed this election. President Bush's
overall job approval rating was 66% approve/31% disapprove (a net 35% approve),
but importantly, his ratings improved to an even higher 69% approve/26%disapprove
(a net 43% approve) rating among the 25% of voters who made up their mind how
they would vote for Congress the last weekend of the campaign or on election
day. Further, among respondents who live in a "battleground district"
as selected by The Cook Political Report, the President's job approval last
night hit 74% approve/24% disapprove (a net 50 approve).
Overall, last night, 45% of respondents said they voted for the Republican
congressional candidate versus only 39% who said they voted for the Democrat
candidate. This +6% GOP edge matches the party's high water mark of the 1994
cycle. Democrats failed to carry seniors (48% Republican/36% Democrat) and Republicans
pulled to a +11% advantage among the critical sub-group of White women voters
(46% Republican/35% Democrat).
There was a late surge to Republicans. As in 1994, Republicans carried the
vote among the 25% of the electorate who made up their mind over the last four
days of the campaign (43% Republican/41% Democrat).
Our verbatims show the handling of Senator Wellstone's memorial service and
the way the ballot situation was handled in New Jersey was clearly a factor
in helping drive Republican intensity in this election.
The issues of this cycle's congressional campaigns were clearly the economy
and jobs, education, Social Security, and prescription drugs. Compared to 1998,
the economy and jobs was a more dominant issue during this cycle. While the
issue of Social Security increased in salience in terms of voters saying it
was of concern to them as compared to 1998, there's no evidence the Democrats
were able to make this issue a larger part of the what issues people recall
seeing, hearing, or reading about as part of this campaign.
We will be doing a separate memo on this topic, but again, clearly, the Democrats
were unable to make significant headway against Republicans on the issue of
prescription drug coverage for seniors.
While Republicans did narrowly lose the vote among people focused on the economy
and jobs and education, Republicans carried voters concerned about the issues
of moral values, terrorism, and Iraq by such overwhelming margins that it allows
Republican candidates to enjoy an historic outcome last night.
CLICK HERE to view our 2002 POST-ELECTION presentation in
PowerPoint
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