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MEMORANDUM

Bill Simon's stunning come-from-behind victory today is due to a host of reasons, including his own discipline and focus, but also the Riordan campaign and the Davis advertising. Below you will see our analysis of this race:

1. Bill Simon had a focused message that was compelling to primary voters.
   
   Our strategy was to target primary voters. After Rudy Giuliani campaigned with Simon, and we put up ads, Simon started improving significantly on the ballot test, picking up momentum with undecided voters. The ballot test went from:
   
   

   	Simon	Riordan	Jones	Undecided
   November '01	5%	43%	16%	36%
   Jan 22-24, '02	18%	45%	13%	21%

   
   
   The Davis ads (which started January 20) actually had little impact on Riordan's ballot numbers. By early February, a public poll still found Riordan leading 41%-24% over Simon, with Jones down to 9%. Undecideds had gone back up to 26%. Most of Simon's vote had come from Jones on the strength of the Giuliani ad AND the Simon Tax/Bio ad where Simon spoke directly to the voters.
   
   

   	Simon	Riordan	Jones	Undecided
   Feb 2-14 '02	24%	41%	9%	26%
   (PPIC)

   
   
   Thus, Giuliani provided the initial kick, and then, by connecting the endorsement with an economic message that GOP primary voters were focused on, Simon kept climbing. By the time Riordan started attacking, he had no credibility with the Republican primary voters, and he couldn't stop a train which had already left the station. Simon's negatives never broke into double digits during the tracking.

2. Dick Riordan never said anything that appealed to GOP primary voters.
   
   Riordan began his advertising on January 8, and he never improved his image or his ballot numbers. In focus groups, GOP women said that he was just not believable. Voters also were far more interested in the state's economy than they were in moral issues such as abortion and gay rights. . .which was the focus of Riordan's message.
   
   Another key element of Riordan's message was "electability" - in other words, he was the best candidate to beat Gray Davis. Republican primary voters have never responded to the "electability" message. They want a candidate who focuses on the important issues and agrees with their views and values.

3. The real turning point came at the GOP state convention.

   	Simon	Riordan	Jones	Undecided
   Feb 10-11 '02	24%	32%	11%	30%
   Feb 17-18 '02	28%	33%	14%	22%

   
   
   In our polling following the convention (which featured Riordan's attack on Governor Deukejian and Simon's straw poll victory and the resultant positive press), Riordan cratered to just a 32%-24% lead, with 11% for Jones and 30% undecided. Among key primary turnout groups, such as very conservative voters and high interest voters, Simon had already pulled ahead.
   
   Simon went ahead for good two weeks later, but the trend was already a foregone conclusion.
   
   

   	Simon	Riordan	Jones	Undecided
   Feb 24-26 '02	33%	31%	12%	23%
   Feb 26-28 '02	34%	27%	12%	25%

4. The Davis advertising blitz did play an important part, but it wasn't the starring role.
   
   While the Davis attacks did NOT drop Riordan's ballot numbers, nor drive up his unfavorables, they had two important impacts: (Davis attack started Jan 20 '02)
   
   

   	Simon	Riordan	Jones	Undecided
   Jan 22-24 '02	18%	45%	13%	21%
   Feb 4-14 '02	24%	41%	9%	26%
   (PPIC)

   
   
   • They caused voters to pay attention to the campaign so that, when Bill Simon started his charge, they knew that the campaign was underway.
   • They shook Riordan up personally and caused him to make numerous mistakes, such as talking about abortion at a time when voters were focused on the economy.

   In our focus groups, primary voters told us they didn't believe anything Gray Davis said, even about Richard Riordan. Gray Davis had an impact, although primarily by distracting Riordan from the true task of winning over GOP primary voters. From Riordan's campaign themes, however, he was not ever on message from the start.