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CHAVEZ WOULD LOSE REFERENDUM IN VENEZUELA
Contact:
Mark Feierstein of GQR, (202) 478-8330
Neil Newhouse of POS, (703) 836-7655
Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez would lose an anticipated recall
referendum, according to a recent national survey of Venezuelans.
Sixty percent of likely voters would vote to revoke the president's
mandate, while 38 percent would support Chavez.
The survey shows that a majority of Venezuelans at all socio- economic levels would oppose Chavez. These results contrast with the
assumption of many analysts that Venezuela is divided between the
upper- and middle-class opponents of Chavez and his lower-class
supporters.
The Venezuelan Constitution provides for a recall vote at the mid- point of a president's term. Organizers of a petition drive have
collected more than the required number of signatures to pave the way
for such a referendum.
In order to revoke the president's mandate and trigger new
presidential elections, opponents would need to obtain more votes in
a referendum than Chavez received in the last presidential election
in 2000. According to the survey results, if turnout for a
referendum is at least 52 percent, 4 points below the 2000 turnout,
the opposition would achieve the required number of votes to revoke
Chavez' mandate.
A consensus is emerging in Venezuela that a recall referendum, which
could be held as early as August 19, would be the best way to resolve
the political crisis there. The public is strongly supportive of a
referendum, according to the survey, and Chavez had said publicly on
numerous occasions that he would accept a recall referendum.
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research (GQR) and Public Opinion Strategies
(POS), prominent Democratic and Republican polling firms, conducted
the survey for Venezuelan private sector leaders, respectively.
Interviews were administered face-to-face with a representative
national sample of 1,000 adults from February 21 to 28. GQR has
conducted research in over 40 countries and has worked for such
leaders as Bill Clinton, Tony Blair and Nelson Mandela. POS polls
for more than 20 U.S. Senators and governors, as well as about 50
members of the House of Representatives, and has conducted polls in a
dozen foreign countries.
"Chavez' support has declined precipitously since he was re-elected
in 2000," said Stanley Greenberg, the chairman of GQR. "The public
is looking for a peaceful and constitutional way to replace him."
"Venezuelans say they are ready for a change, and they point to
Chavez as what they want to change," added Neil Newhouse, a partner
with POS.
Venezuelans are also highly concerned about Chavez' commitment to
democracy, the survey shows. A majority (53 percent) thinks that
democracy in Venezuela has been set back under Chavez, and 44 percent
believes the term "dictatorial" describes him well.
Many Venezuelans also presume that Chavez will try to cling to power,
no matter the outcome of the voting; most of the public (53 percent)
thinks that in the event of an electoral defeat, Chavez would try to
stay in office.
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